Supply and demand stalemate led to the recent differentiation in the domestic fish market sales mentality

In the recent period, the domestic traditional demand is in the off-season, and in the early period, the external disk weakness has also caused the price of domestic fishmeal to enter a weak adjustment state. Under the mentality of “buy up and not buy down”, the domestic terminal feed companies’ willingness to purchase has been significantly weakened; The time for Peru’s new season to start catching was earlier than expected by most people in the industry, which further exacerbated the hollow status of domestic terminal feeding companies, and at the same time also made some of the holders’ willingness to cash out remain strong, resulting in a weak adjustment in domestic fishmeal prices. continue. However, due to differences in the structure of holdings and sales mentality, the prices of different domestic traders have also been divided.

First, bearish factors shrouded the domestic fishmeal terminal feed enterprises to continue to increase their concentration on the eve of the Chinese New Year holiday. Many terminal feed companies have purchased some of the domestic fishmeal prices soaring. Therefore, after the Spring Festival, the performance of domestic fish meal trading market continued to be light. Especially at the end of February, the pre-sale price of Peruvian manufacturers' new season fishmeal was relatively low, further constraining the purchasing enthusiasm of terminal feeding companies. Although the pre-sale price of fresh fish meal in some Peruvian factories in the vicinity of the country rose in early March, the official Peruvian government announced the time for opening the catch, and the catching time was earlier than expected by most of the industry. Therefore, the current status of the domestic terminal feed enterprises wait and see attitude. Continuing to turn strong, some low-stock feed companies basically focus on buying and using.

Second, the “baggage for security” mentality, domestic fishmeal traders will continue to show strong sentiment in the domestic end-demand market performance continues to be light, coupled with the Peruvian capture time earlier than most industry insiders expected impact, near During the period, the willingness of domestic fishmeal holders to “cash out” was even stronger, making domestic fishmeal prices weaker. At present, the reference price for ordinary fishmeal in Shanghai and Guangzhou ports is 12,500 yuan/ton, which is 300 yuan/ton lower than last week; the reference price for super-steamed fish meal is 13,500 yuan/ton, which is 300 yuan/ton lower than last week, and part of shipment intention Strong traders have further room for bargaining, and it is reported that the lowest trading price for ordinary-grade fishmeal is 12200-12300 yuan/ton (Shanghai Port).

Third, the price structure of fish meal in China’s northern and southern regions has different differentiation in product structure. Currently, southern China’s ports are relatively decentralized while northern ports are relatively concentrated. In addition, the current domestic market is in the off-season demand for aquatic products, while northern aquaculture start time It was later than the south, which made the terminal feeding enterprises in the northern regions even less eager to purchase in batches. Therefore, in the case of scarce transactions, the sales of fishmeal holders in the northern regions were calmer than in the south and the quotations fluctuated relatively slowly. At present, the reference price for common grade fishmeal in northern China's ports is 12,800 yuan/ton, and the reference price for super-steamed fishmeal is 13,800 yuan/ton. The transaction price is subject to bargaining, and some of the holders have room for profit.

In general, due to the negative atmosphere of the domestic fishmeal market in the recent period, the domestic market for fish meal adjustment may still continue. However, for northern China, if there is little trading volume, local fish meal prices will change. The rate may still be slower than in southern ports. In addition, under the condition of good aquaculture performance, large domestic fishmeal holders have high expectations for the consumption of aquatic products in the later period, which may be expected to have a constraining effect on the price adjustment of fishmeal rounds, which deserves attention in the industry.