Analysis of market trends of most Chinese herbal medicines

According to the July 29th report from the Business Club, most of the 13 varieties of medicines monitored are stable or maintain high levels of shock. Among them, 7 varieties (Tai Zi Shen, Salvia miltiorrhiza, Zhonglou, Guizhi, Chinese wolfberry, Codonopsis pilosula and trigeminal bitter) were kept at the same level, 4 varieties (Panax ginseng, honeysuckle, Cordyceps sinensis, and white sugar) rose, and only 2 varieties (Danggui and Borneol) were available. The price dropped month-on-month.

The varieties that are expected to increase in price in the future are: Salvia miltiorrhiza, Rhizoma paridis, and Cordyceps.

Expected prices fall in the future are: heterophylla, Codonopsis, borneol.

Key species price forecast

Taizishen: It is expected that prices will continue to fall in the coming months. Historical prices: Prices in the past 10 years are all below 50 yuan/kg;

Supply situation: The expansion area of ​​the three main producing areas is about 50%, the income per mu is 10,000 to 20,000 yuan, and the economic value is high; the demand situation: the downstream demand is highly concentrated, and the company can limit production or stop production control requirements in stages; other varieties Experience: similar species of honeysuckle, with the expansion of the area of ​​large prices quickly fall.

Codonopsis: Short-term price is expected to callback

In the past two years, the soaring prices of Chinese herbal medicines have not only caused frequent natural disasters, but also contributed to the accumulation of hot money. Chinese patent medicine manufacturing companies are suffering from rising costs; recent incidents of jerry-building and false charging by pharmaceutical companies have been exposed. There are hidden dangers in the quality and safety of medicines. The NDRC's move is a price rectification signal, which will play a deterrent role in hoarding of hot money, and short-term prices are expected to fall.

The annual consumption of Codonopsis was 25,000 tons, and the 1,000 tons that was ordered to sell had little material impact on prices. It is understood that companies have purchased more than half a year of inventory when prices are low. Coupled with the changeable climate in the main producing areas this year, the production of Codonopsis is unfavorable, and it is difficult for production to increase significantly. After a short-term correction, prices remain relatively high.