Internet medical care is far from opening, concentrated betting has big risks

Compared with the continuous high investment and financing environment of digital medical care in the United States, the amount of investment and financing of digital medical care in China has not been high. This is because Internet medical technology originated in China is subject to the status quo of the system and the market, and it has not been able to find a profitable business model that can be quickly copied. After the investment boom of 2014, capital has become more cautious on all types of projects, and the overall tone for 2015 is to take over. Various industrial funds and large companies began to screen after the projects they invested in the past year. In the process of undertaking, the logic of capital is more concentrated on meaningful flows and resources. For example, registered traffic is more meaningful than pure online traffic, and it is valuable to connect high-quality medical resources with ordinary resources.

Internet medical care is far from opening. Centralized betting has big risks.

Driven by such logic, capital began to place bets on resources that might be realized in the future, thus pushing up the valuation and financing amount of individual companies. Since the concentrated bet of capital often means the identification of the direction of market development and the possibility that the invested company may usher in large-scale growth, this makes the market illusory that Internet medical treatment has reached the second half. In the future, small companies will be merged or withdrawn, and large companies can make great progress all the way to the market.

Unlike other Internet sectors, the high investment in the Internet medical field is not due to the maturity of the business model, through the strong promotion of capital to compete for market share, but because capital is also afraid of making mistakes. In the Internet medical field, most of the projects can't find profit points, and burning money can't burn the future. And a few that have a large amount of capital, there are some income, although not high, but at least some income, but still growing. It is precisely because of fear of making mistakes that some large funds are no longer invested in most of the early projects that are not sure, but they still have a passionate pick-up for projects that have already been financed in the middle and late stages. The starting point of capital is not whether the project can grow rapidly at the moment, but whether the story it tells can be sold to the next receiver.

But in the long-distorted medical service market, the biggest problem with Internet medical care is that the profit ceiling is obvious. Every business seems to be able to make money, but it can never be bigger. This leads to a company that can't grow bigger even if it has multiple businesses and can make money. In a market where demand distortions (small illnesses) and undersupply (qualified and trusted doctors are scarce), no matter how you do, you can't change user behavior, and you can only follow the system and rely on it. The essence of Internet medical treatment as a core control tool is to help the payer and the user jointly control the behavior of the service party and the product party. If Internet medical compliance is required to comply with this system, it is not only in conflict with its own intrinsic value, but also destined that it cannot truly develop.

Therefore, from the perspective of the logic of market development, although Internet medical care has made many surface innovations in China, its development has never been able to achieve breakthroughs because of the inextricable contradiction with the currently distorted market itself. Most of the current projects only complete the change from 0 to 1, but never jump from 1 to 10. The future of Internet medical needs to develop the two core elements of the policy must be the revolutionary revolution of the Dongfeng and offline medical systems. Before these two changes have been made on a large scale, the opening and closing of Internet medical care is wishful thinking.

For example, before the US medical reform, although the payer had a strong incentive to control the fee, because the intrinsic concept and related measures of value-free medical care, the payer has never promoted the remote consultation as an offline consultation. Effective additions and substitutions. This has led to the fact that Teladoc, which was established in 2002, has not been able to achieve significant development. After the medical reform in 2013, Teladoc was successfully listed after two and a half years of explosive growth. Therefore, Internet medical companies that have long existed in the market cannot represent the Internet medical industry has matured. The real opening must be an opportunity for its large-scale development, that is, the American medical reform in 2013.

Moreover, the development of Internet medical care in the United States also gives inspiration for the entry point. The enterprises that entered early can't develop very well, and many of the late entry have the advantage of latecomer. For example, the doctor community Doximity was founded at the latest but the fastest growing. More than half of the practitioners in the United States have joined the community. Although QuantiaMD and Sermo have been established for a period of 10 years or so, they only have more than a quarter of the doctors in the United States. The reason why Doximity came from behind is related to its unique development model. Because it better solves the ethical dilemma for the doctor platform, it finally gains the trust of doctors.

As can be seen from the above cases, the policy of the payer will be an important driving force for the development of Internet medical care. However, policies are not enough, and offline demand and supply can be matched. As far as remote consultation is concerned, it is not too troublesome for Chinese patients to get a general doctor's consultation online, and there is no need to make an appointment. However, because of the lack of qualified and reliable doctors in China, there is still a shortage of supply. Even if the payer promotes value-added care in China, remote consultations will not be able to achieve explosive growth in China because supply cannot keep up.

Therefore, the key to the development of Internet medical needs is the need to repair the offline medical system. It is a long-term process to repair the offline medical system. First of all, the cultivation of talents can not be completed overnight. Only 40% of doctors in China are undergraduate or above, and it is really difficult for students to have confidence in a large number of primary doctors. The cultivation of doctors is a long-term process, and medical treatment is a very important profession. It is not a quick achievement that can cultivate good talents. Second, reverse the model of relying on product profitability and transform the economic power of doctor services. Only when doctors no longer profit from the products can they do the service with sincerity, which will really reduce the waste of medical treatment (opening many unnecessary inspections and drugs). Finally, the payment market for medical services has changed. In the case that the government is unable to provide a large amount of financial subsidies, the future payment system must be based on medical insurance and supplemented by commercial insurance. Under the evolving new payment system, the value system of medical services will inevitably restrict the development of the behavior of the service providers. If the original service organizations cannot adapt to the new situation, this will also drive the birth of a large number of new service organizations. Through continuous game, we finally reach a relatively optimized market.

Under the premise of no performance support, the valuation of some Internet medical companies is currently too high. In a long-cycle industry, especially in an industry where the market is still far from being developed and full of uncertainty, the high valuation is actually a sword of Damocles that will fall at any time. As the market evolves, capital and startups face enormous risks if they cannot find a path that can be rapidly developed in the short term.

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