After a wave of waves began, the price of agricultural products began to rise.

In 2011, prices never stopped. On August 29, the National Development and Reform Commission's National Economic Affairs Division released a report on the current economic situation, saying that the overall price level of China may still be operating at a high level. Under repeated control, prices did not honestly follow the example: Pigs are still flying in the sky. Eggs, edible oils seem to go into the sky and meet with pork. Even the vegetables that had previously fallen and hurt the farmers turn yin yang. The upward trend has already begun to show...

National Development and Reform Commission: China's overall price level may still be operating at a high level. The Development and Reform Commission's National Economic Affairs Division issued a report on the current economic development situation on the 29th, saying that China's overall price level may still be operating at a high level.

The report pointed out that due to the fact that the global loose liquidity situation has not changed and the pressure on domestic production costs continues to increase, “plus natural disasters, public opinion speculation and other factors may increase inflation expectations and increase the difficulty of completing the annual target. "This is also the first time that the official departments of the NDRC publicly made this statement on the completion of the CPI target for this year.

According to this year's "Government Work Report," this year's annual CPI control target is 4%. However, since the beginning of the year, the CPI index has increased month by month. In July, the CPI rose by 6.5% year-on-year, a rise that hit a 37-month high.

Earlier in August, the head of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission once said that from the factors of cyclical fluctuations and the fall of hikes, the current round of price running has already reached a turning point.

However, the Development and Reform Commission said yesterday that the overall price level may still be operating at a high level.

Judging from the trend, the global liquidity easing situation is difficult to change in the short term. The international commodity market prices are still at a high level, and the impact of imported inflation has not significantly weakened; the pressure on domestic production costs continues to rise, and the contradictions in the price of resource factors are prominent; Some natural disasters, public opinion speculation and other factors may increase inflation expectations and increase the difficulty of completing the full-year target.

The National Economic Affairs Division also pointed out some other economic uncertainties yesterday. On the one hand, the current uncertainties in achieving stable agricultural output increase remain strong. Because autumn grain is the bulk of food production throughout the year. At present, it is at a crucial stage for the production of crops. In some areas, the drought situation is heavy. In the later period, there is still the possibility of natural disasters. Stabilizing autumn grain production still faces greater uncertainty. Although the number of live pigs has risen in recent months, the overall level has not been high. In addition, housing prices in some cities are still relatively high, and the construction of affordable housing projects is under pressure. (Beijing News, reporter Jingjing Jing)

Afterwards: meat prices have risen and egg prices have risen again. "The price of garlic has started to rise. It is estimated that after 10 days, it will rise to more than two." Mr. Zhang, who sells garlic from the Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Beijing's Xinfadi Agricultural Market in Shandong Jinxiang, told reporters Say. The reporter learned that the prices of vegetables, including garlic, have recently stopped showing signs of rebound. Some leafy vegetables have risen by 30% from the previous month. At the same time, the prices of major agricultural and sideline products, such as eggs and edible oil, continued to rise, and pork prices remained high, showing a round of upward trend.

The National Development and Reform Commission issued a document on the 29th that the unfavorable factors affecting the current stable operation of the economy are that the overall price level may still be operating at a high level, and secondly, the uncertainty of achieving stable agricultural output increase is still strong.

Rebounds in vegetable prices have stopped falling. The latest sign of changes in the prices of agricultural products is the rebound in vegetable prices. Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring data showed that prices of some leafy vegetables have increased significantly since late July. Compared with July 20, national spinach, canola, and lettuce rose by 31.2 on August 28. %, 20.8%, 27.3%. In August, the price of green beans, cucumber, eggplant, cowpea, bitter gourd, and garlic also rose.

According to the monitoring data of edible agricultural products released by the Ministry of Commerce last week, from August 15 to 21, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables ended all the way down since April and rose for the first time from the previous week, with an increase of 2.1%. Among them, prices of leafy vegetables such as lettuce, Chinese cabbage and rapeseed rose by 15.1%, 14.1% and 11% respectively.

Some analysts believe that rainfall in some parts of the country affects the growth of vegetables and restricts their supply, leading to short-term fluctuations in vegetable prices. The decline in vegetable prices has narrowed significantly, and it has been hinted that vegetable prices will stabilize in the later period.

Since April of this year, due to the oversupply of new vegetables on the market, vegetable prices have fallen sharply in the production areas, causing “food crops hurt farmers”. Wang Ying, an analyst at Oriental Agri Consulting Co., Ltd., told the reporter that if the market trend is normal, there will be no increase in vegetable prices. However, due to the fact that vegetable farmers do not understand the national vegetable cultivation information, when vegetable prices are particularly low, it may be Reduce the number of plantings in the next round, which will have an impact on the market.

The spread of “meat and egg oil” price increases has increased in addition to the price of vegetables. The reporter also found that the prices of many agricultural products in the “vegetable basket” of the common people are also rising.

For example, the price of pork continued to rebound after it stopped falling. According to data from Sogou.com, the national average hog prices approached the previous high. Affected by the strong pork price in the southern and central and western regions, the area where the average price of slaughter pigs broke 10 yuan/kg has obviously increased, and gradually affected the price of pigs in the surrounding areas.

Yan Xiaoxiao, an economic analyst at the Xinhua News Agency, told reporters that due to the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and the upcoming school opening of colleges and universities, the demand for pork has increased, and the current shortage of pigs has not changed substantially. Pork prices still have some room for growth.

The high pork price has a significant ripple effect on the prices of other meat and egg products. According to the Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, the national egg prices have risen significantly since July and have repeatedly hit record highs. On August 27, the national average daily egg price rose to 5.40 yuan per catty, which is higher than July 1. Rose 9.8% on the day. At present, the national egg price is significantly higher than the same period of last year. It increased by 16.1% on August 27.

The chicken trader of a vegetable market in Majiabao, Beijing, said that the price of chicken meat has risen a lot recently. The price of chicken-like thigh meat was 9 yuan per catty before, and it has now risen to 10 yuan per catty.

For grain and oil products, the price of food has risen steadily, and the price of edible oil has continued to rise. According to data from the main food prices of the 50 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 24th, peanut oil and soybean oil rose the most in grain and oil products in mid-August and rose by 2.3% and 1% from the previous analysis.

According to the Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, since August, the number of local cities reflecting the rise in edible oil prices has increased, and the prices of edible oil brands and varieties have both increased in size, involving Golden Dragon Fish, More power, Eagle, Lu flowers and other brands. Among them, compared with August 1, the price of pure peanut oil rose the most on August 27, which was 5.2%. The price of pure peanut oil in more than 90% of the provinces, districts, and cities was above 110 yuan per barrel (5 liters).

“At present, whether in the wholesale or terminal retail market, edible oil prices have risen to varying degrees. The increase in the cost of raw materials such as peanuts and soybeans is the main reason for the rise in edible oil prices.” Tan Xiaoxiao predicts that with the demand for edible oil The demand will gradually increase. With the support of high production costs and increased demand, it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate in the near future.

Pressure food inflation increased and inflation expectations increased at the beginning of the year. Vegetable prices rose. In the second quarter, the price of pork rose. Now it is the price of eggs and edible oil. The price of vegetables has rebounded. Since the beginning of this year, China’s food prices have shown a rising trend. This will undoubtedly increase. The pressure of current price increases.

Wang Jian, secretary-general of the National Macroeconomics Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters that at present, China's price increase is mainly driven by food. For example, the July consumer price index (CPI) rose by 6.5% year-on-year, of which food prices rose by 14.8% year-on-year. The overall price level rose by about 4.38 percentage points.

Wang Jian believes that the increase in food prices in recent years has been more than double the overall CPI, and the core of food is food. This year, the first spring drought began, and by May it was turned into a disaster. This rare and disastrous climate has a negative impact on grain production this year. If the summer grain output is reduced and the autumn grain production is reduced, the food-driven inflation process will take place in the third and fourth quarters. It will continue, it is impossible to be less than 5%, especially in the autumn of November, the CPI breaks the "7" is also possible, the whole year will not be less than 5%.

According to a report released by CSC Securities, "This year, food prices have gone up. After the vegetables have come down with pork, the pork has not yet come down. Aquatic products and eggs have followed. Aquatic products and pork have just taken a break, edible oil and chicken. The seedlings and ducklings took batons again, just like a hundred flowers blossoming and competing. We can't really see the kind of space and impetus for a large drop in food prices. With the withdrawal of the NDRC price hikes, some commodity prices will retaliate. The rise in sex should not be unexpected."

The brokerage believes that in the third quarter, China's price pressures will remain high, and the CPI will be higher than in the second quarter. Although the fourth quarter is mainly due to the weakening of the carryover factor, the year-on-year increase in CPI will decline, but the growth rate will still be higher. It is expected that the annual CPI in 2011 will be 5.5% or more.

Yao Jingyuan, former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters that rising prices are still a big problem for China's economy this year. The current price increase is more complicated. From an international point of view, after the outbreak of the world financial crisis in 2008, the countermeasures of various countries were mainly to issue more banknotes, which led to the global excess of liquidity and the rapid rise in the prices of international bulk commodities. China is now the world’s second largest importer, so most of the time it can only passively accept price increases. From the domestic point of view, the currency is also surpassing. However, the deeper problem is that our country’s agricultural foundation is weak. At present, China's population engaged in agriculture accounts for about half of the country's population, but agricultural output accounts for less than 10% of GDP.

Measures to support agriculture in the medium- and long-term period Although the food price data monitored by the ministries and commissions may indicate that the food price index may decline in August, the report from Essence Securities found that the food price in August was significantly lower than that in August. Ring average.

According to the report, observing the historical situation since 2001, food prices in the CPI showed a strong seasonal pattern, which was often negative in August, and continued to increase until the following February. In August, the food price in the CPI was significantly lower than the historical average, which corresponds to the seasonally rapid fall in vegetable prices in August.

But now, vegetable prices have re-emerged. In response to the rebound in food prices represented by vegetables, the country has recently introduced some measures. For example, in July, the Ministry of Commerce and Beijing jointly launched the construction of the on-vehicle vegetable market on weekends to allow direct supply of vegetables from production areas and minimize the cost of circulation.

Chu Jianfang, chief macro economist of CITIC Securities, suggested that the focus of the policy should be to improve supporting agriculture policies in the medium and long term and stabilize agricultural product prices. Build a modern agricultural industry system and accelerate the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.

Specifically, the first is to promote the industrialization of agriculture, improve the government's financial subsidy mechanism, increase the scale of operation and technological progress, and increase the supply of agricultural products; the second is to promote the construction of the market circulation system for agricultural products; the third is to strengthen supervision, limit the speculation of agricultural products, and strengthen the state The adjustment of important agricultural product reserves; Fourth, innovative forms of agricultural organization, rationalizing the linkage mechanism of agricultural product value chains. (Economic Information Daily (microblogging), reporter Fang Qi Bai Tiantian)

Expand Reading JP Morgan: China's inflation has peaked. JK Lee, managing director of China Global Markets, said on the 29th that China's domestic inflation level has peaked, but has been subject to wage increases and money supply over the past two years. With the rapid expansion, potential inflationary pressures still exist.

Li Jing believes that overall, the A-share market has fallen in the current round, and is more affected by the problem of US credit downgrade rather than the deterioration of China's domestic economy. She believes that there is a certain irrational influence on the current stock index decline. As for the A-share market analysis, since China holds a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and US Treasury bonds, even if the A-share valuation has fallen to a historically low level before the US debt issue and economic growth issues are not resolved properly, foreign institutions such as QFII are currently taking significant steps. The possibility of field strategy is still very low.

Li Jing believes that the more favorable factor is that China’s economic dependence on exports has decreased. Exports have averaged 34.2% of GDP from 2006 to 2009, and fell to 25.4% of GDP in 2010. In the first half of this year, the role of exports in economic growth was negative.

Li Jing stated that the renminbi has accelerated its appreciation against the US dollar. In the first 7 months, the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has reached 2.70%. In August, there are signs of acceleration. In theory, greater exchange rate flexibility and accelerated appreciation of the renminbi will help resolve domestic inflationary pressures and complete the transformation of the economic growth model.

Li Jing is still optimistic about the trend of gold prices. At present, China’s investment demand has surpassed that of India and ranks first in the world. Although domestic gold only has a production volume of about 350 tons/year, private consumption has reached about 700 tons/year, among which investment funds are seeking to find a safe haven, as well as increasing inflationary pressures and an increase in residents' access to gold. She believes that in the coming months, innovative products including the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Gold ETF will be launched, and it is expected that the gold price will reach 2,500 US dollars per ounce at the end of the year. (China Securities Journal, Reporter Zhu Yin)

(This article was published by the Comprehensive Economic Reference, Beijing News, China Securities Journal, China Net, People's Daily, etc.)

In 2011, prices never stopped. On August 29, the National Development and Reform Commission's National Economic Affairs Division released a report on the current economic situation, saying that the overall price level of China may still be operating at a high level. Under repeated control, prices did not honestly follow the example: Pigs are still flying in the sky. Eggs, edible oils seem to go into the sky and meet with pork. Even the vegetables that had previously fallen and hurt the farmers turn yin yang. The upward trend has already begun to show...

National Development and Reform Commission: China's overall price level may still be operating at a high level. The Development and Reform Commission's National Economic Affairs Division issued a report on the current economic development situation on the 29th, saying that China's overall price level may still be operating at a high level.

The report pointed out that due to the fact that the global loose liquidity situation has not changed and the pressure on domestic production costs continues to increase, “plus natural disasters, public opinion speculation and other factors may increase inflation expectations and increase the difficulty of completing the annual target. "This is also the first time that the official departments of the NDRC publicly made this statement on the completion of the CPI target for this year.

According to this year's "Government Work Report," this year's annual CPI control target is 4%. However, since the beginning of the year, the CPI index has increased month by month. In July, the CPI rose by 6.5% year-on-year, a rise that hit a 37-month high.

Earlier in August, the head of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission once said that from the factors of cyclical fluctuations and the fall of hikes, the current round of price running has already reached a turning point.

However, the Development and Reform Commission said yesterday that the overall price level may still be operating at a high level.

Judging from the trend, the global liquidity easing situation is difficult to change in the short term. The international commodity market prices are still at a high level, and the impact of imported inflation has not significantly weakened; the pressure on domestic production costs continues to rise, and the contradictions in the price of resource factors are prominent; Some natural disasters, public opinion speculation and other factors may increase inflation expectations and increase the difficulty of completing the full-year target.

The National Economic Affairs Division also pointed out some other economic uncertainties yesterday. On the one hand, the current uncertainties in achieving stable agricultural output increase remain strong. Because autumn grain is the bulk of food production throughout the year. At present, it is at a crucial stage for the production of crops. In some areas, the drought situation is heavy. In the later period, there is still the possibility of natural disasters. Stabilizing autumn grain production still faces greater uncertainty. Although the number of live pigs has risen in recent months, the overall level has not been high. In addition, housing prices in some cities are still relatively high, and the construction of affordable housing projects is under pressure. (Beijing News, reporter Jingjing Jing)

Afterwards: meat prices have risen and egg prices have risen again. "The price of garlic has started to rise. It is estimated that after 10 days, it will rise to more than two." Mr. Zhang, who sells garlic from the Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Beijing's Xinfadi Agricultural Market in Shandong Jinxiang, told reporters Say. The reporter learned that the prices of vegetables, including garlic, have recently stopped showing signs of rebound. Some leafy vegetables have risen by 30% from the previous month. At the same time, the prices of major agricultural and sideline products, such as eggs and edible oil, continued to rise, and pork prices remained high, showing a round of upward trend.

The National Development and Reform Commission issued a document on the 29th that the unfavorable factors affecting the current stable operation of the economy are that the overall price level may still be operating at a high level, and secondly, the uncertainty of achieving stable agricultural output increase is still strong.

Rebounds in vegetable prices have stopped falling. The latest sign of changes in the prices of agricultural products is the rebound in vegetable prices. Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring data showed that prices of some leafy vegetables have increased significantly since late July. Compared with July 20, national spinach, canola, and lettuce rose by 31.2 on August 28. %, 20.8%, 27.3%. In August, the price of green beans, cucumber, eggplant, cowpea, bitter gourd, and garlic also rose.

According to the monitoring data of edible agricultural products released by the Ministry of Commerce last week, from August 15 to 21, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables ended all the way down since April and rose for the first time from the previous week, with an increase of 2.1%. Among them, prices of leafy vegetables such as lettuce, Chinese cabbage and rapeseed rose by 15.1%, 14.1% and 11% respectively.

Some analysts believe that rainfall in some parts of the country affects the growth of vegetables and restricts their supply, leading to short-term fluctuations in vegetable prices. The decline in vegetable prices has narrowed significantly, and it has been hinted that vegetable prices will stabilize in the later period.

Since April of this year, due to the oversupply of new vegetables on the market, vegetable prices have fallen sharply in the production areas, causing “food crops hurt farmers”. Wang Ying, an analyst at Oriental Agri Consulting Co., Ltd., told the reporter that if the market trend is normal, there will be no increase in vegetable prices. However, due to the fact that vegetable farmers do not understand the national vegetable cultivation information, when vegetable prices are particularly low, it may be Reduce the number of plantings in the next round, which will have an impact on the market.