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The pattern of drug consumption will be dominated by long-term in-patient drug consumption, and the impact of medical reform on drug consumption will gradually manifest itself. After the implementation of the basic drug system, pilots of public hospital reforms have been initiated, some hospitals have eliminated drug additions, and county public hospitals are also piloting reforms. The state proposes to make changes to the medical insurance payment system. Overall, it hopes to reduce high-priced foreign drugs and auxiliary drugs, thus reducing the overall amount of medication. However, since the reform of public hospitals and the payment of medical insurance are all gradual processes, the overall impact will gradually be reflected in the next 3 to 5 years.
The pharmaceutical industry is obviously affected by policies. In the short term, valuation is not cheap, but in the long run, it will grow healthily and will not change investment value. The pharmaceutical industry has a huge demand space. The future pharmaceutical industry will continue to be a booming and fast-growing industry in the country. This logic will not change. The pharmaceutical industry has a low base under the influence of previous policies. This round of strong growth has ushered in a wave of rising stock prices. Cycle. In the short term, due to the relatively high valuation and premium rates, policy and performance fluctuations will also cause short-term adjustments in medicine, and the long-term healthy growth trend will not change in the coming years.
Recommended stocks: The state's investment policy for universal health care remains the same, and the overall profitability of the company will not change much in the short term, and competitive companies will enter a new round of development cycle. Mainly optimistic about the three types of stocks: 1) the performance of a stable and high-quality Chinese medicine company with exclusive varieties: recommended Tasly, Tong Ren Tang, Kunming Pharmaceuticals; 2) brand general pharmaceutical companies: Kang Yuan Pharmaceutical, Yunnan Baiyao, China Resources Sanjiu; (3) Benefited Countries: High growth in industrial policy performance: Shanghai Kaibao, Hongri Pharmaceutical, and David Medical.