Food prices tend to decline

The National Bureau of Statistics announced today the consumer price index (CPI) for October. Earlier, affected by the decline in vegetable prices and the impact of hikes, several agencies have consistently forecast that the October CPI will remain below 2%, about 1.8%-1.9%. %between. According to the National Food Statistics Bureau's monitoring report on major food prices in late October, 15 kinds of foods in 27 types of foods have dropped from the middle of the previous month, accounting for 55.5% of the total, and there are only 9 kinds of foods in the chain.

Hu Yanni, a macroeconomic analyst at the China CITIC Investment Research Institute, said that since October, on the one hand, the supply of vegetables and fruits has been relatively abundant, and prices have dropped significantly. On the other hand, holiday factors have weakened, and grain and oil, which were previously affected by holiday factors, have declined. The increase in the price of meat and eggs slowed down. Therefore, it is expected that the food price in October will be significantly lower than in September.

The Bank of Communications predicts that CPI will continue its low position in October, or be the same as last month, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. At the same time, China Merchants Securities reported that after the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, poultry, eggs and vegetables fell for two consecutive weeks, food and pork prices rose slightly, and aquatic products and fruits rose slightly. It is expected that the October CPI and 9 The monthly average was 1.9%.

Many agencies predict that the CPI will fall slightly in October. The macroeconomic forecast report released by the Industrial Bank indicates that the CPI in October is expected to continue to fall slightly by 0.1% from the previous month and increase by 1.8% year-on-year. The report of the first startup securities release report also stated that the October CPI will increase by 1.8% year-on-year.

In view of the future trend of CPI, Li Guoxiang, a research fellow at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is not optimistic: “As the weather gradually turns cold, vegetable prices will usher in a rebound, winter is often the peak season for meat consumption, and pig, cattle, and mutton prices are also It will rise slightly. From the current point of view, there are still many uncertainties affecting price increases in the future. In November, the CPI is likely to return to more than 2%, and overall inflationary pressures cannot be ignored.”